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Findings
- Go to finding 1Income volatility remained relatively constant between 2013 and 2018. Those with the median level of volatility, on average, experienced a 36 percent change in income month-to-month during the prior year.
- Go to finding 2There is wide variation in the levels of income volatility families experience, both across families at a given point in time and also for a given family across time.
- Go to finding 3平均而言，家庭在一年中的近五个月里经历了巨大的收入波动. Income spikes are twice as likely as income dips and most common in March and December. 与收入波动较小的家庭相比，收入波动最大的家庭经历的波动更大，但并不更频繁.
- Go to finding 4Income volatility is greatest amongst the young and the high income. However, downside risks, as measured by the magnitude and frequency of income dips, are greatest among low-income families.
- Go to finding 5The trend of spending volatility was flat between 2013 and 2018. While the level of spending volatility was also high, it was 15 percent lower than that of income volatility, 除了75岁以上的账户持有人和那些拥有最大现金缓冲的人.
- Go to finding 6一个家庭需要大约六周的实得收入，即流动资产，才能抵御同时出现的收入下降和支出飙升. Sixty-five percent of families lack a sufficient cash buffer to do so.
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October 2019
In this report, 12bet官方研究所(JPMorgan Chase Institute)使用行政银行账户数据来衡量收入和支出的波动性，以及家庭抵御不利收入和支出冲击所需的最低现金缓冲水平.
家庭收入和支出的不稳定或不可预测的波动使计划支出变得困难, pay down debt, or determine how much to save. Managing these swings, or volatility, 越来越被认为是美国家庭经济安全的重要组成部分. In prior JPMorgan Chase Institute (JPMCI) research, 我们已经记录了家庭经历的高水平收入和支出波动. In this report, 我们在了解波动性如何影响家庭以及他们需要多少现金缓冲来抵御不利的收入和支出冲击方面取得了进一步进展. We explore six key questions:
- What is the trend of month-to-month income volatility between 2013 and 2018?
- What is the distribution of income volatility and is it persistent from year to year?
- What are the prevalence and magnitude of income spikes versus dips?
- How does income volatility differ across demographic groups?
- How does month-to-month spending volatility compare to income volatility, overall and across demographic groups?
- 家庭抵御不利收入和支出冲击所需的最低现金缓冲水平是多少?
Finding One: Income volatility remained relatively constant between 2013 and 2018. Those with the median level of volatility, on average, experienced a 36 percent change in income month-to-month during the prior year.
Finding Two: There is wide variation in the levels of income volatility families experience, both across families at a given point in time and also for a given family across time.
Finding Three: 平均而言，家庭在一年中的近五个月里经历了巨大的收入波动. Income spikes are twice as likely as income dips and most common in March and December. 与收入波动较小的家庭相比，收入波动最大的家庭经历的波动更大，但并不更频繁.
Finding Four: Income volatility is greatest amongst the young and the high income. However, downside risks, as measured by the magnitude and frequency of income dips, are greatest among low-income families.
Finding Five: The trend of spending volatility was flat between 2013 and 2018. While the level of spending volatility was also high, it was 15 percent lower than that of income volatility, 除了75岁以上的账户持有人和那些拥有最大现金缓冲的人.
我们的研究结果对设计储蓄策略以改善家庭财务健康和弹性具有重要意义. 他们建议，目前可用来帮助家庭抵御收入和支出波动的工具，可以更好地针对个人的现金流进行调整. 仅仅把月收入的一定比例存起来，就可能使一个家庭的现金储备不足, 在现金流为负的月份加剧财务困境，在现金流为正的月份导致储蓄不足. Instead, 在收入高峰月份，家庭可能需要更积极地获取储蓄机会. We provide empirical guidance for families, financial health advocates, financial advisors, 而政策制定者则需要为家庭提供最低水平的现金缓冲，以抵御不利的冲击. Given the key role stability plays in the health of families’ financial life, 至关重要的是，我们要继续评估美国家庭的收入和支出波动是如何变化的，以及这对家庭财务健康的影响.
