研究 理解收入波动和在线平台经济的作用

即使在美国.S. 经济继续每个月创造数以千计的就业机会, there are insufficient data to examine the income volatility workers are experiencing on a regular basis. We know that individuals experience high levels of income and spending volatility. 然而,, we need to more clearly understand the root causes of this volatility in order to arm decision makers with the data to better inform policy interventions that successfully address this pervasive issue. 每个人每个月的收入变化是怎样的? 谁受收入变化的影响最大? 他们在做什么来补充或替代这些收入的变化? 他们在多大程度上依赖于新的工作方式来减轻这种波动?

12bet官方研究所的最新报告，Paychecks, Paydays, and the Online Platform Economy: Big Data on Income Volatility，通过分析一个例子来回答这些问题 匿名 sample of 1 million 追逐 customers in an effort to determine the key sources of income volatility and provide the most in-depth look to date into the size and growth of the Online Platform Economy.

通过检查消费者的实得工资, 该研究所探讨了他们的收入波动水平和, 第一次, 看看越来越多的在线平台的使用, 比如Uber, Etsy和Airbnb, 作为缓解收入波动的潜在资源.

薪水和发薪日如何导致收入波动

在我们第一份报告的基础上， 风化的波动, we found that income volatility is a present and real phenomenon for individuals across the income spectrum:

找到一个: 收入波动, 普遍存在, 在年轻人中最明显吗, 收入最低的五分之一的人, 以及生活在西方的人.

发现二: Median-income individuals experienced nearly $500 in labor income fluctuations across months, 收益的飙升比下跌幅度更大，但频率更低. 针对中等收入人群, 这种波动转化为平均475美元的变化, 包括四分之一时间内超过903美元的变化.

发现三: Most of the month-to-month volatility in take-home pay (86 percent) came from variation in pay within distinct jobs. 工作内部收入的波动主要源于: 工资金额的变化 (72%)和 支付频率 (28%):

• 工资数额的变化: Sixty-one percent of individuals experienced an end-of-year pay spike some time between December and March that resulted in a 30 percent increase in pay; and 61 percent of individuals experienced other idiosyncratic fluctuations in income from their job that resulted in absolute changes in labor income of approximately 27 percent in a positive or negative direction.
• 薪酬频率的变化: 80%的人经历过“五个星期五效应”.
  • Fifty-five percent of individuals had a job that pays every two weeks and they experienced a 26 percent increase in pay in months with three paychecks.
  • Twenty-five percent of individuals had a job that pays weekly; they experienced a 14 percent increase in pay in months with five paychecks.

发现四: 几乎每10个人中就有4个人在某一年换过工作, 对劳动收入每月波动的贡献率为14%.

一种新的赚钱方式:在线平台经济

在管理持续的收入波动水平方面, 一部分人正在转向网络平台经济. The ease and quickness with which a person can earn through these platforms are making it a viable tool for substituting and supplementing their income.

该研究所分析了来自260多个国家的匿名数据,000 participants who earned income from one of 30 distinct platforms within the Online Platform Economy from October 2012 to September 2015. We distinguished the Online Platform Economy into two distinct segments: labor platforms, 比如Uber和TaskRabbit, which allow individuals to perform discrete tasks or projects as well as capital platforms, 比如eBay或Airbnb, 它们允许个人点对点租赁资产或出售商品.

以下是我们对这种新的工作方式的了解:

发现五: Although 1 percent of adults earned income from the Online Platform Economy in a given month, 在三年的时间里，超过4%的人参加了这个项目.

• 每月的参与率在3年期间增加了10倍, 三年来，累计参与率增加了47倍. 在任意月份，0.4 percent of adults (40 percent of all platform participants) received earnings from labor platforms and 0.6 percent of adults (62 percent of all platform participants) received income from capital platforms. 因此，总数为2.美国有500万成年人参与在线平台经济.S.
• 在三年的所有参与者中, 21%的人参加了劳动平台, 78%的人参与了资本平台, 2%的人两者都参加.
• 然而,, after the first month of platform participation, participation is quite sporadic. 用于劳动平台, individuals earned money in only 56 percent of subsequent months; for capital platforms, 这个数字下降到32%.
• 大多数人只从一个平台赚钱, though those who use labor platforms are more likely (14%) to use multiple platforms, 超过资本平台参与者(只有1%使用多个平台).

发现六: 在线平台经济是第二收入来源, 随着时间的推移，参与者并没有增加对平台收入的依赖.

• 劳动平台的平均月收入为533美元, 代表参与者月总收入的33%. For capital platforms, average earnings were $314, representing 20 percent of total monthly income.
• Reliance on platform earnings remained stable over time in terms of both the fractions of months that participants are active and the fraction of total income earned on platforms in active months.
  • 截至2015年9月, 25 percent of labor platform participants relied on platform income for more than 75 percent of their total income; for capital platforms, only 17 percent of participants relied on platform income for more than 75 percent of total income.

找到七: 劳动力平台的收入抵消了非平台收入的下降, 但来自资本平台的收益只是对非平台收入的补充.

• 在总, labor platform earnings appeared to largely substitute for a 14 percent shortfall in non-platform income in months with platform earnings. 在平台盈利的几个月里, 它额外贡献了15%的收入, 总收入增长不到1%.
• Capital platform earnings tended to supplement rather than substitute for other income. Non-platform earnings tended to be less than 1 percent lower in months with platform earnings, 资本平台收益又贡献了7%, 收入增长7%.

有了这份报告, 我们可以开始更深入地了解我们的劳动力市场, 它是如何变化的，这些变化是如何影响个人收入的. 与及时, 相关数据, smarter policy decisions can be made that keep pace with changes to our economy and the types of jobs being created. 这就是12bet官方研究所的使命. We will continue to tap into our unprecedented data set to dig into the turmoil in our labor market and provide decision makers with the facts and analyses to increase economic opportunity by reducing income volatility.

法雷尔 is the founding President and Chief Executive Officer of the 12bet官方 研究所. 以前, Diana was the Global Head of the McKinsey Center for Government and the McKinsey Global 研究所. She served in the White House as Deputy Director of the National Economic Council and Deputy Assistant to the President on Economic Policy.