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August 2022
On August 24, 2022, the Biden Administration announced 它将为某些借款人取消高达2万美元的联邦学生债务. 收入低于125美元的借款人,000 for single tax filers or $250,000名联合申报人有资格被取消. Borrowers who received Pell grants at some point are eligible to have their debts cancelled up to $20,000, 所有其他借款人都有资格获得10美元,000 cancelled.
我们使用行政大通银行和征信局的数据,000 student debt holders to estimate how the benefits of this cancellation program might be distributed by household income and borrower race and ethnicity.1
We find that:
- Up to 34 percent of all debt is eligible to be cancelled, or $549 billion out of a total of $1.62万亿美元的未偿联邦债务.
- For every dollar of cancellation received by households in the top 40 percent of the income distribution (more than $76,000), 收入最低的40%的家庭(不到52美元),000) receive $0.68. 假设所有借贷者都在125美元之间,000 and $250,000 in income are dual filers, 我们的数据表明，对于这个收入范围内的绝大多数借款人来说，哪种情况是正确的. 如果我们假设这个范围内的所有借款人都是单一申报人, 然后低收入家庭得到1美元.高收入家庭每收到1美元，就有22美元被取消.2
图1:收入越高的家庭获得的取消美元略多, 但低收入家庭的债务更有可能被完全取消.
- 低收入家庭的债务更有可能被完全取消, primarily because lower income households tend to hold less debt relative to higher income households.
- Average debt cancelled for all income groups is between $8,800 and $10,000 (see Figure 2). 低收入家庭成为佩尔奖学金获得者的可能性略高, 但不太可能有超过10美元的未偿债务,000.
图2:被取消的债务平均在9美元之间,000 and $10,000 across the income spectrum, 但黑人家庭的比例相对较高.
- 负债的黑人家庭平均收入约为11美元,000 in cancellation, 而西班牙裔和白人家庭的平均收入为9美元,500 and $9,000, respectively.
- The average Black household benefits relatively more from cancellation because Black households hold more student debt relative to their share of the population. 美国黑人家庭的平均收入为2美元.取消次数是普通白人家庭的5倍(参见图3). The distribution of cancellation dollars roughly follows the distribution of debt holdings (see Figure 4).
Figure 3: Black and Hispanic households receive more cancellation relative to their population share.
Figure 4: The distribution of cancellation dollars by race and ethnicity is proportional to the distribution of debt held by each group.
1.Our data cover the year 2016. We reweight our sample so the resulting income distribution matches the income distribution of households with non-deferred student debt in the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances. We also restrict our sample in several ways to ensure the borrower’s Chase accounts are their primary accounts (see Greig and Sullivan 2021). Our measure of borrower income is the sum of all inflows into the borrower’s Chase accounts, 不包括其他帐户的转帐.g.(从储蓄或经纪账户转入支票账户). 这是一个衡量净收入或实得收入的指标, which we use to construct a measure of gross income by assuming an income tax withholding rate of between 13% and 20%, depending on income, and a payroll tax rate of 7.65%. 收入扣缴比例从13%到20%呈线性变化，税率为125美元,000美元的净收入，此后保持20%不变. Our data for race and ethnicity is taken from public voter rolls in Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana. All analyses of race effects are restricted to those states with a total sample if 10,800 borrowers. 参见Farrell, Greig和Sullivan(2020)对该样本的进一步讨论. Our joint data set does not include information on whether a borrower received a Pell grant. 为了解释不同收入的佩尔奖学金获得者的差异, race, and ethnicity, 我们使用的数据来自学士学位和超越2008/2012调查, 哪家公司提供学生债务余额的数据, Pell recipiency, 和毕业后四年的收入. We then randomly assign Pell recipiency within our income groups such that the Pell recipiency rates within each group match Baccalaureate and Beyond. 使用CPI系列CUUR0000SA0，所有收入数字都被压缩到2021年的美元.
2.All other results, 包括取消是如何按种族和民族分配的, are substantively the same whether we assume these borrowers are dual- or single-filers.
Cominole, M., Ritchie, N.S., & Cooney, J. (2020). 2008/18学士学位及以上纵向研究(B&B:08/18) Data File Documentation (NCES 2021-141). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences. Retrieved 8/24/2022 from http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch.
法雷尔、戴安娜、菲奥娜·格雷格和丹尼尔·M. Sullivan. 2020. “学生贷款债务:谁来偿还??” JPMorgan Chase Institute. http://44j8m0i.re-peng.com/corporate/institute/household-debt-student-loan-debt.
Greig, Fiona and Daniel M. Sullivan. 2021. 谁能从学生债务减免中受益?” JPMorgan Chase Institute. http://44j8m0i.re-peng.com/institute/research/household-debt/who-benefits-from-student-debt-cancellation.
We thank our research team, specifically Bernard Ho, 感谢他对这项研究的辛勤工作和贡献. Additionally, we thank Elizabeth Ellis, Kristine Pham, Annabel Jouard, Stephen Harrington, 感谢凯特·芬纳蒂和克拉克·威尔逊的支持. 我们感谢我们的内部合作伙伴和同事, 谁以各种方式支持我们的议程, 并感谢他们对每个和所有版本的贡献.
We are also grateful for the invaluable constructive feedback we received from external experts and partners. 我们对他们慷慨的时间、洞察力和支持深表感谢. This research was possible because of the vital partnership, data, and knowledge from Experian.
我们要感谢12bet官方的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 & Co., for his vision and leadership in establishing the Institute and enabling the ongoing research agenda. 我们仍然深深地感谢彼得·谢尔, Vice Chairman, Demetrios Marantis, Head of Corporate Responsibility, Heather Higginbottom, Head of Research & Policy, and others across the firm for the resources and support to pioneer a new approach to contribute to global economic analysis and insight.
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